In a stunning development that exposes deep fissures within Vladimir Putin’s regime, the Russian president signed a decree on February 11, 2026, reshaping the nation’s security apparatus and placing the National Guard under direct military control. This move, amid escalating losses in Ukraine, signals Putin’s growing paranoia over internal threats, echoing the 2023 Wagner mutiny and leaving experts stunned at the potential fallout for the war.
The decree hands unprecedented authority to Army General Valery Gerasimov, consolidating power in a loyalist as Putin scrambles to fortify his inner circle. Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War describe this as a desperate overhaul, merging internal security forces with the general staff to prevent future rebellions. It’s a clear response to the Wagner fiasco, where Putin’s own guards failed to act, highlighting vulnerabilities at the Kremlin’s core.
This restructuring occurs as Russian forces face catastrophic defeats on the Ukrainian front, with Ukrainian advances clearing key settlements and striking deep into occupied territory. The timing raises alarms, as such mid-conflict changes often lead to chaos and weakened command structures, potentially tipping the balance in Ukraine’s favor.
Adding to the 𝒹𝓇𝒶𝓂𝒶, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has launched a frantic propaganda campaign, repeating identical demands across multiple interviews. From TV channels to podcasts, he insists on NATO’s rollback and Ukraine’s concessions, a tactic that underscores the Kremlin’s isolation and refusal to bend amid mounting pressures.
Lavrov’s repetition of pre-invasion ultimatums reveals a regime in denial, even as its military strategy crumbles. Experts like Michael Kofman from the Carnegie Endowment warn that Russia’s push for continuous offensives has backfired, exposing the hollowness of Putin’s victory claims and fueling domestic unrest.
Meanwhile, Russian military bloggers are openly rebelling against Kremlin censorship, erupting in fury over restrictions on Telegram, a vital tool for frontline communications. These influential voices accuse officials of lying about battlefield realities, marking a dangerous erosion of support within Putin’s pro-war base.
The backlash intensified when Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed Telegram’s role, only to face widespread ridicule from bloggers who see it as evidence of elite disconnect. This public dissent could accelerate the cracks in Putin’s regime, as even loyalists question the leadership’s grip on the war effort.
On the ground, Ukraine’s forces are pressing their advantage, with recent strikes hitting Russian infrastructure like the Volgograd oil refinery, causing massive fires and disrupting supply lines. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has announced trilateral talks with the US, though Russia remains obstructive, demanding alternative venues.
Zelenskiy’s moves highlight growing international isolation for Moscow, as NATO allies ramp up support with billions in aid. Germany’s contributions alone signal a unified front, bolstering Ukraine’s defenses and pressuring Putin’s faltering strategy.
Putin’s consolidation of power, including potential dissolution of the Ministry of Emergency Situations, absorbs thousands of personnel into the National Guard, centralizing control under trusted figures like Gerasimov. Yet, this frantic reshaping risks more instability, as historical precedents show such shifts breed confusion in active conflicts.
Western intelligence is closely monitoring these events, with reports indicating Russia’s military leadership is in disarray. The elevation of Gerasimov, while rewarding loyalty, exposes how Putin’s inner circle is shrinking, driven by fear rather than strength, amid the war’s relentless toll.
Lavrov’s propaganda blitz, targeting various audiences, fails to mask the regime’s desperation. His insistence on unyielding demands only amplifies the perception of a Kremlin out of touch, as Ukrainian forces gain ground and Russian losses mount.
The Wagner mutiny’s shadow looms large, with Putin’s reforms directly addressing that near-catastrophic failure. By integrating Rosgvardia into the general staff, he’s attempting to eliminate internal risks, but at what cost to battlefield effectiveness?
Experts agree this overhaul could exacerbate existing vulnerabilities, as reorganized forces struggle with new chains of command during intense fighting. The implications for Ukraine are profound, potentially opening windows for decisive advances.
NATO’s prioritized aid packages, raising over $4.5 billion, underscore global resolve against Russian aggression. Countries like Norway and the Netherlands are stepping up, ensuring Ukraine has the resources to counter Putin’s advances.
As the war enters a critical phase, Putin’s regime appears more fragile than ever. The restructuring, born of internal fears, might ultimately undermine his position, with Western nations watching for any sign of collapse.
Russian military bloggers’ defiance represents a pivotal shift, challenging the Kremlin’s narrative and exposing the gap between official rhetoric and grim realities on the front. This unrest could spread, further destabilizing Putin’s hold.
In summary, Putin’s bold decree marks a turning point, revealing a leader gripped by paranoia as his inner circle fractures under the weight of war. The world waits to see if this gamble strengthens or shatters his rule, with Ukraine’s fight for freedom hanging in the balance.